Update 9/26/24: The Senate approved the CR last night and sent the bill to President Biden to be signed into law.

Original Post: With less than a week till the beginning of Fiscal Year 2025 (October 1st), Congress is rushing to pass a continuing resolution (or CR) to avoid a government shut. Over the weekend, Congressional leaders announced a bicameral, bipartisan compromise to pass a relatively clean CR that would extend funding authority, at FY24 levels, to December 20th. This is likely the best-case scenario given the situation, as House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) originally floated a March 2025 CR with a politically toxic voting amendment attached to it. A clean CR, which does not contain politically contentious policy provisions or funding changes, avoids a messy political fight and the possibility of a government shut down until after the election.

However, confidence that Congress will finalize FY25 by December 20th would be misplaced. As we have said repeatedly during the budget process, the outcome of the November elections will directly impact how FY25 is closed out. If the political calculus is relatively unchanged after the election (meaning a split in control of Congress and Democrats retain the White House), it is likely that this Congress will want to close out FY25 to give the 119th Congress a clean slate. However, if either side gains a clear advantage in the election, the likely outcome will be punting the matter into 2025, where that side will have more say over the funding details. We will have to wait for events to play out.