FY21 Update: Final Budget Numbers Released; Research Fares Well


UPDATE (12/28/20): After threatening a veto, and risking a government shutdown, Trump signed the budget into law Sunday night. Fiscal Year 2021 is complete.

Original Post: When last we left the Fiscal Year 2021 (FY21) budget process, we were waiting for Congress to get the final bill across the finish line. It took them two additional continuing resolutions (one set for 48 hours; a second one for 24 hours), but Congressional leaders finally hammered out an agreement. The numbers are mostly positive for the federal research accounts, though there are lots of ups and downs in there.

CJS: NSF, NIST, and NASA

NSF would receive $8.49 billion for FY21 overall, an increase of $210 million over last year (or +2.5 percent). The Research and Related Activities (R&RA) account, which hosts NSF’s research portfolio, would receive a similar 2.5 percent increase, up from $6.74 billion in FY20 to $6.91 billion for FY21. As well, the Education and Human Resources (EHR) account would also see an increase of 3.0 percent, going from $940 million in FY20 to $968 million in FY21. These numbers are mostly between the House mark and the Senate numbers released in November, though they are much closer to the Senate numbers.

FY20 FY21 PBR FY21 House FY21 Senate FY21 Final $ Change % Change
NSF Total $8.28B $7.74B $8.55B $8.48B $8.49B +$210M +2.5%
R&RA $6.74B $6.21B $6.97B $6.91B $6.91B +$170M +2.5%
EHR $940M $931M $970M $963M $968M +$28M +3.0%

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) numbers are more mixed. The top line for the agency would be flat funded, receiving the same $1.03 billion in FY21 that it received last year. However, the institutes’ Science and Technical Research and Services (STRS) account, where the majority of the agency’s research is housed, would see a healthy increase for FY21: $788 million, which is $34 million more (4.4 percent) than it received for FY20; that’s right between the House and Senate marks.

FY20 FY21 PBR FY21 House FY21 Senate FY21 Final $ Change % Change
NIST Total $1.03B $738M $1.04B $1.05B $1.03B 0 0
STRS $754M $652M $789M $787M $788M +$34M +4.5%

NASA’s budget is very much a compromise between the House (which was bad) and Senate (which was pretty good). The top line for the agency gets an increase, going from $22.63 billion in FY20 to $23.27 billion (an increase of $640 million or 2.8 percent). The NASA Science account would do nearly as well, as it would receive a 2.2 percent increase. The account would go from $7.14 billion in FY20 to $7.30 billion in FY21.

FY20 FY21 PBR FY21 House FY21 Senate FY21 Final $ Change % Change
NASA Total $22.63B $25.25B $22.63B $23.50B $23.27B +$640M +2.8%
Science $7.14B $6.31B $7.10B $7.27B $7.30B +$160M +2.2%

Energy: Dept of Energy, ASCR, and ARPA-E

The Department of Energy’s Office of Science would receive only a slight increase (less than 1 percent) over FY20 levels; bringing the agency’s budget to $7.03 billion for FY21, an increase of only $30 million. Within the Office of Science, the Advanced Scientific Computing Research program, which houses the majority of the computing research at DOE, would see a more generous increase of 4.1 percent – going from $980 million in FY20 to $1.02 billion in FY21. These numbers are basically the House passed numbers from over the summer.

In an interesting change, the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy, or ARPA-E, would not fare as well in the final compromise bill than it had in either chamber’s bills. The agency would be flat funded, receiving a slight increase of less than 1 percent ($427 million for FY21, rather than $425 million in FY20). While not an increase it is still significantly better than being eliminated, as it was under the administration’s plan.

FY20 FY21 PBR FY21 House FY21 Senate FY21 Final $ Change % Change
DOE SC Total $7.00B $5.84B $7.05B $7.03B $7.03B +$30M +<1%
ASCR $980M $988M $1.02B $1.03B $1.02B +$22M +4.1%
ARPA-E $425M $0 $435M $430M $427M +$2M +<1%

Defense: DOD and DARPA

In another change, though this time good, the Defense Department’s research accounts fared much better in the final agreement. Regular readers will recall that the House numbers were not objectively good, while the Senate numbers were pretty bad (though not as bad as the administration’s request)

Basic Research (6.1) gets a good increase, going from $2.60 billion in FY20 to $2.67 billion in FY21, an increase of 2.7 percent or $70 million. Both the House and Senate numbers were below this mark.

The Applied Research (6.2) account fares even better. The account would see an increase of 6.3 percent compared to last year’s budget, going from $6.07 billion in FY20 to $6.45 billion (+$380 million). Again, better than both the House and Senate, who both recommended cuts.

The Advanced Technology Development (6.3) account would also receive an increase, going from $7.40 billion in FY20 to $7.76 billion in FY21; an increase of $360 million or 4.9 percent. This is better than both the House and Senate, who, again, both recommended cuts.

Finally, DARPA would see an increase over FY20 but only a slight one. The agency would go from $3.46 billion in FY20 to $3.50 billion under the FY21 plan, an increase of just 1.2 percent (or $40 million). This is between the House and Senate marks.

FY20 FY21 PBR FY21 House FY21 Senate FY21 Final $ Change % Change
DOD 6.1 $2.60B $2.32B $2.62B $2.41B $2.67B +$70M +2.7%
DOD 6.2 $6.07B $5.39B $5.92B $6.00B $6.45B +$380M +6.3%
DOD 6.3 $7.40B $6.33B $7.08B $6.75B $7.76B +$360M +4.9%
DARPA $3.46B $3.57B $3.51B $3.49B $3.50 +$40M +1.2%

Where do things head from here? Trump has until Dec. 28 to sign the bills, after Congress passed, and he approved, an additional seven-day continuing resolution. The stopgap legislation is being used as a backstop to make sure there isn’t a shutdown while Congress delivers the final appropriation bills to the White House heading into the holidays. Once he signs the final bills, this budget will be put to rest for the year. It’s been a long year, but it’s nice to see the finish line in sight. Next year will bring a new administration and hopefully a new approach to research policy and funding. Be sure to check back in the new year, when this whole process starts back up.

FY21 Update: Final Budget Numbers Released; Research Fares Well